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Evaluation Uncertainty

Evaluation Uncertainty

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Surprises in Programs and their Evaluations

Jonathan (Jonny) A. Morell, PhD
JAMORELL@JAMORELL.COM

4.669…
Evaluation & Planning

AssumptionsUse and MisuseSystem Perspectives
Agent-Based ModelingProgram Theory and LogicDiscipline and Profession
Unintended ConsequencesEvaluating Complex BehaviorSustainability and Scale-up
Evolutionary Biology and Ecology

Recent Posts

November 20, 2025 jamorell Complex Systems, Programs, and Evaluation, What do research and theory in complexity and systems tell us about evaluation practice and evaluation theory?

How/Can Evaluators Plan For Change Over Time?

November 3, 2025 jamorell Contributions of Evolutionary Biology and Ecology

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology as Useful for Evaluation – A Very Brief Overview

October 31, 2025 jamorell Agent-based Modeling as an Evaluation Tool

Agent-based Modeling as an Evaluation Methodology

October 23, 2025 jamorell System Perspectives

Evaluations as Experiments in Systems: Value for Evaluation, Value for System Science

August 4, 2025 jamorell Program Theory and Program Logic, System Perspectives

Evaluation Influence During Program Design and Funding: An Ecosystem / Environment Perspective

More Posts→

Eat dessert first. Life is uncertain.
Good advice. True observation.

Any yet, we must soldier on, trying to predict what will happen and to explain why things work out as they do. My professional life has grappled with prediction and explanation through the lens of program evaluation. I have come to appreciate how much, and how little, evaluation can tell us. Sometimes it is “much”. Sometime is “little”. Sometimes it is “much” and “little” at the same time. This blog expresses my engagement with what evaluation can do, what it cannot do, what it should do, and what it should not do. About the graphic.

Contributions to this blog are most welcome. If you are interested, please contact me at jamorell@jamorell.com.

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